New Zealand’s general election has ended without a clear winner on election night, with the two largest parties separated by a fraction of a percentage point and the final shape of the next government likely to depend on hundreds of thousands of votes still to be counted.
Voters went to the polls on Saturday, November 7. Preliminary results released by the Electoral Commission put the centre-left Labour Party marginally ahead on the party vote, while Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s centre-right National Party is projected to hold more seats in parliament.
What the preliminary count shows
The Electoral Commission’s figures, based on about 2.43 million ordinary votes counted on election night, are indicative only. The Commission said they “will change after special votes have been checked and counted”.
- Labour: 29.36% of the party vote, 36 seats
- National: 29.21% of the party vote, 42 seats
- Green Party: 13.30%, 16 seats
- ACT New Zealand: 10.92%, 13 seats
- New Zealand First: 9.78%, 12 seats
- Opportunity Party: 5.96%, 7 seats
- Te Pāti Māori: 0.57%, 5 seats
National’s higher seat total comes from winning 42 electorate seats, more than its share of the party vote would normally provide. This creates what is known as an overhang, which enlarges parliament. The preliminary count gives a 131-seat parliament, meaning 66 seats are needed for a majority. Turnout was estimated at 74.6%, down from 78.2% in 2023.
Coalition arithmetic
Neither major party is in a position to govern alone. On the preliminary numbers, National and its current partners, ACT and New Zealand First, would hold 67 seats between them, one above the majority threshold, according to ABC News analysis of the count.
The Opportunity Party, led by Qiulae Wong, is set to enter parliament for the first time after clearing the 5% threshold, and could play a role in any negotiations. According to ABC News, Luxon has previously ruled out working with Opportunity, while Labour leader Chris Hipkins has been reported as open to talks, though not on the party’s proposed land tax. Wong said she would approach National first because it won the most seats, but that any agreement would depend on her party’s bottom lines.
What the leaders said
Luxon described the result as too close to call and said National appeared to have a pathway back to government, adding that negotiations and compromises would be needed, ABC News reported.
Hipkins said New Zealand had spoken but that the message was not yet clear. “Every vote matters and every vote must now be counted,” he said, according to ABC News.
During the campaign, National pledged to return the budget to surplus while expanding the national pension scheme, and Labour promised cheaper healthcare and transport, Al Jazeera reported.
What happens next
The Electoral Commission estimates there are about 399,000 special votes, including around 97,000 overseas and dictation votes, still to be processed. Ballots cast by New Zealanders living abroad form part of this count.
- Official results: due on Friday, November 27, according to the Electoral Commission.
- Coalition talks: expected to follow once the final numbers are known.
- Timing: a political science lecturer quoted by ABC News suggested a new government may not be formed before Christmas.
The result follows the US midterm elections held earlier in November.
Sources: Electoral Commission New Zealand, ABC News, Al Jazeera.
